Universal Journal of Educational Research Vol. 8(5), pp. 2143 - 2149
DOI: 10.13189/ujer.2020.080553
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Investigating the Predictability of Academic Participation and Performance on First-Year Retention of College Freshmen


Mingchu Neal Luo *, Paul Bland , Daniel Stiffler , Jerry Will
Department of School Leadership/ Middle & Secondary Teacher Education, Emporia State University, Kansas, USA

ABSTRACT

First-year retention of freshmen has been one of the most important indicators contributing to university education quality. This study seeks to investigate the specific predictive capacity of academic integration on college students' first-year retention for the purpose of understanding the specific probability impact and predictability of academic participation and performance by applying the statistical models to analyze the freshmen data. We analyzed data of a cohort consisting of 738 full-time freshmen to examine the predictability of students' academic participation and performance on their first-year retention at a Midwest state university. The academic factors including students' participation and performance were combined with the other factors of students' demographics and financial aid as the predictive variables on first-year retention in a logistic regression model. Results of the logistic regression show that students' academic participation indicated by credit hours completed and academic performance measured by cumulative GPA significantly predict first-year retention. As a student's earned credit hour per semester increases by one, the probability of returning to the university increases by 6.6%. An increase of 0.1 GPA for a student increases the odds of returning by 2.9%. These two predictor variables explain 41.4% of outcome variation of first-year retention. The specific probability prediction revealed by this study offers university administrators and faculty more measurable and accurate information to their decision makings for improving freshman student retention. Other implications were also discussed including the suggestion that broad efforts be enhanced in creating a more supportive environment that focuses primarily on student academic success.

KEYWORDS
Academic Participation, Academic Performance, First-Year Retention, Logistic Regression

Cite This Paper in IEEE or APA Citation Styles
(a). IEEE Format:
[1] Mingchu Neal Luo , Paul Bland , Daniel Stiffler , Jerry Will , "Investigating the Predictability of Academic Participation and Performance on First-Year Retention of College Freshmen," Universal Journal of Educational Research, Vol. 8, No. 5, pp. 2143 - 2149, 2020. DOI: 10.13189/ujer.2020.080553.

(b). APA Format:
Mingchu Neal Luo , Paul Bland , Daniel Stiffler , Jerry Will (2020). Investigating the Predictability of Academic Participation and Performance on First-Year Retention of College Freshmen. Universal Journal of Educational Research, 8(5), 2143 - 2149. DOI: 10.13189/ujer.2020.080553.