Civil Engineering and Architecture Vol. 7(6A), pp. 33 - 42
DOI: 10.13189/cea.2019.071404
Reprint (PDF) (1099Kb)

Prediction of Future Climate Change for Rainfall in the Upper Kurau River Basin, Perak Using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM)

Nuramidah Hamidon ^1,*, Sobri Harun ², Norshuhaila Mohamed Sunar ¹, Nor Hazren A.Hamid ¹, Mimi Suliza Muhamad ¹, Hasnida Harun ¹, Roslinda Ali ¹, Mariah Awang ¹, Mohamad Ashraf Abdul Rahman ¹, Faridahanim Ahmad ¹, Kamaruzaman Musa ¹, Fatimah Mohamed Yusof ¹, Mohd Syafiq Syazwan Mustafa ^1
1 Department of Civil Engineering Technology, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia, Malaysia
² Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Johor, Malaysia

ABSTRACT

Climate change is considered to be one of the biggest threats faced by nature and humanity today. The goal of this study is to predict future climate change for rainfall in the Upper Kurau Basin. In this research, the applicability of statistical downscaling model (SDSM) in downscaling rainfall in the Upper Kurau River basin, Perak, Malaysia was investigated. The investigation includes calibration of the SDSM model by using large-scale atmospheric variables encompassing the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data. Rainfall data were derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with A2 and B2 scenarios. A2 is considered among the “worst” case scenarios, projecting high emissions for the future. Unlikely, B2 projected a lower emission for the future and it is considered as “environmental” case scenarios. Results from simulation showed that during the calibration and validation stage, the SDSM model was well acceptable in regards to its performance in downscaling of daily and annual rainfalls. Under both scenarios A2 and B2, during the prediction period of 2010–2099, changes of annual mean rainfall in the Upper Kurau River basin would present a trend of increased rainfall in 2020s; insignificant changes in the 2050s; and a surplus of rainfall in the 2080s, as compared to the mean values of the base period. Annual mean rainfall would increase by about 33.7% under scenario A2 and increase by 27.9% under scenario B2 in the 2080s. Most of the areas of the Upper Kurau River Basin were dominated by increasing trend of rainfall and will become wetter in the future.

KEYWORDS
Climate Change, Malaysia, Rainfall, Statistical Downscaling Model

Cite This Paper in IEEE or APA Citation Styles
(a). IEEE Format:
[1] Nuramidah Hamidon , Sobri Harun , Norshuhaila Mohamed Sunar , Nor Hazren A.Hamid , Mimi Suliza Muhamad , Hasnida Harun , Roslinda Ali , Mariah Awang , Mohamad Ashraf Abdul Rahman , Faridahanim Ahmad , Kamaruzaman Musa , Fatimah Mohamed Yusof , Mohd Syafiq Syazwan Mustafa , "Prediction of Future Climate Change for Rainfall in the Upper Kurau River Basin, Perak Using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM)," Civil Engineering and Architecture, Vol. 7, No. 6A, pp. 33 - 42, 2019. DOI: 10.13189/cea.2019.071404.

(b). APA Format:
Nuramidah Hamidon , Sobri Harun , Norshuhaila Mohamed Sunar , Nor Hazren A.Hamid , Mimi Suliza Muhamad , Hasnida Harun , Roslinda Ali , Mariah Awang , Mohamad Ashraf Abdul Rahman , Faridahanim Ahmad , Kamaruzaman Musa , Fatimah Mohamed Yusof , Mohd Syafiq Syazwan Mustafa (2019). Prediction of Future Climate Change for Rainfall in the Upper Kurau River Basin, Perak Using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). Civil Engineering and Architecture, 7(6A), 33 - 42. DOI: 10.13189/cea.2019.071404.