Environment and Ecology Research Vol. 6(1), pp. 12 - 32
DOI: 10.13189/eer.2018.060102
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Forecast of Agricultural Calendar for Maize (Zea Mays) from Global Circulation Model in the Ruzizi Area (DRC)


Mutalemba Ntole Romain 1,*, Muhigwa Jean Berckmans 2, Katcho Katcho Karume 3, Mukengere Bagula Espoir 4,5
1 Engineering in Agricultural, Evangelical University in Africa, DR Congo
2 Department of Biology, Faculty of Sciences, Bukavu Official University, DR Congo
3 Faculty of agriculture and Environmental sciences, Evangelical University in Africa, DR Congo
4 College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences (CAES), Makerere University, Uganda
5 Faculty of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Soil Management and Geoinformatic Unit, Evangelical University in Africa, DR Congo

ABSTRACT

The world is facing several major challenges that regarding answer to the current economic crisis and the development of appropriate strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. The objective of the study is to identify climate risks for maize and the development of an agricultural calendar from a global circulation model. From meteorological data, an agro-climatic analysis was performed during the period 1995-2013 and a forecast from 2015 to 2045 has been done. The results showed that maize is facing major agro-climatic risks from the shortening of the vegetative growth period consecutive to a screeching halt rains before the end of the rainy season which is one of the major agro-climatic constraints. From predicting Echam-5 model, the agricultural calendar was adjusted to avoid the drop in rainfall observed in October and plan the sowing period at the end of October instead of September.

KEYWORDS
Models, Maize, Climate Change, Forecast

Cite This Paper in IEEE or APA Citation Styles
(a). IEEE Format:
[1] Mutalemba Ntole Romain , Muhigwa Jean Berckmans , Katcho Katcho Karume , Mukengere Bagula Espoir , "Forecast of Agricultural Calendar for Maize (Zea Mays) from Global Circulation Model in the Ruzizi Area (DRC)," Environment and Ecology Research, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 12 - 32, 2018. DOI: 10.13189/eer.2018.060102.

(b). APA Format:
Mutalemba Ntole Romain , Muhigwa Jean Berckmans , Katcho Katcho Karume , Mukengere Bagula Espoir (2018). Forecast of Agricultural Calendar for Maize (Zea Mays) from Global Circulation Model in the Ruzizi Area (DRC). Environment and Ecology Research, 6(1), 12 - 32. DOI: 10.13189/eer.2018.060102.