Mathematics and Statistics Vol. 3(5), pp. 121 - 128
DOI: 10.13189/ms.2015.030502
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Modelling Summer Daily Peak Loads in South Africa Using Discrete Time Markov Chain

Molete Mokhele ^1,*, Caston Sigauke ^1,2
1 School of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Private Bag 3, Wits 2050, South Africa
² Department of Statistics, University of Venda, Private Bag X5050, Thohoyandou 0950, South Africa

ABSTRACT

Electricity demand exhibits a large degree of randomness in South Africa, particularly in summer. Its description requires a detailed analysis using statistical methodologies, in particular stochastic processes. The paper presents a Markov chain analysis of peak electricity demand. The data used is from South Africa's power utility company Eskom, for the period 2000 to 2011. This modelling approach is important to decision makers in the electricity sector particularly in scheduling maintenance and refurbishments of power-plants. The randomness effect is accountable to meteorological factors and major electricity appliance usage. Aggregated data on daily electricity peak demand is used to develop the transition probability matrices, steady-state probabilities, mean return- and the first passage times. Such analysis is important to Eskom and other energy companies in planning load-shifting, load analysis and scheduling of electricity particularly during peak period in summer.

KEYWORDS
Daily Peak Electricity Demand, Discrete Time Markov Chain, Steady State Probability, Passage Time, Mean Return Time, Transition Matrix

Cite This Paper in IEEE or APA Citation Styles
(a). IEEE Format:
[1] Molete Mokhele , Caston Sigauke , "Modelling Summer Daily Peak Loads in South Africa Using Discrete Time Markov Chain," Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 3, No. 5, pp. 121 - 128, 2015. DOI: 10.13189/ms.2015.030502.

(b). APA Format:
Molete Mokhele , Caston Sigauke (2015). Modelling Summer Daily Peak Loads in South Africa Using Discrete Time Markov Chain. Mathematics and Statistics, 3(5), 121 - 128. DOI: 10.13189/ms.2015.030502.