Universal Journal of Agricultural Research Vol. 2(5), pp. 154 - 167
DOI: 10.13189/ujar.2014.020503
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Rain Fed Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) Crop Growth Yield Forecasting Model


Adil Bashir Karrar 1, Hassan Ibrahim Mohamed 2, Haitham Ragab Elramlwai 3, Atif Elsadig Idris 4,*
1 Department of Agric. Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Sinnar, Sudan
2 Department of Agric. Engineering, College of Agricultural Studies, Sudan University of Science and Technology, Shambat, Khartoum North, Sudan
3 Centre of Dry Land Farming Research and Studies, University of Gadarif, Sudan
4 Department of Agronomy, College of Agricultural Studies, Sudan University of Science and Technology, Shambat, P.O. Box 71, Khartoum North, Sudan

ABSTRACT

Agricultural production in Sudan is largely rainfed. For most Sudanese people sorghum is the staple food and its production is critical for national food security. Crop forecasting is the art of predicting crop yields and amounts of production before the harvest actually takes place, typically couple of months in advance. Several techniques can be used for crop forecasting. Crop forecasting relies on computer programs that describe the plant-environment interactions in quantitative terms. Such programs are called models. A twin-track approach was adopted, in which the fieldwork was linked to computer modeling. The outcome of the modeling effort was the development of the crop growth and water productivity prediction model. The model is a deterministic, process-based physical model with daily time-step cropping systems. The model can simulate the soil-plant water budget, crop canopy and root growth, and dry matter production for Sorghum crop. Experiments were done at Sinnar, AbuNa'ama and Gedaref areas during the same season. A simple, two layered soil, water balance model is used, based upon assumptions that the soil has a moderate hydraulic conductivity and no drainage impediment, there is no storage of water in excess of field capacity beyond one day, the water table is deep and there is no significant contribution from groundwater, the water content of the root zone is uniformly distributed at the end of each day, model takes no direct account of soil fertility, technology (mechanization, fertilizer use), varietal differences and farming practices. Inputs are daily date since sowing, mean or average daily temperature in degree Celsius, daily pan evaporation (mm), daily rainfall (mm), which is the only source of infiltration into the soil. Sorghum grain yield is estimated by the model as the main output. The ability of the model to provide reasonable estimate of rain-fed sorghum yield according to Chi square test is reasonable, and therefore, the model can be used for forecasting sorghum yield in the study area.

KEYWORDS
Simulation Model, Sorghum Crop Growth, Rain Fed Agriculture, Rain Water Productivity

Cite This Paper in IEEE or APA Citation Styles
(a). IEEE Format:
[1] Adil Bashir Karrar , Hassan Ibrahim Mohamed , Haitham Ragab Elramlwai , Atif Elsadig Idris , "Rain Fed Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) Crop Growth Yield Forecasting Model," Universal Journal of Agricultural Research, Vol. 2, No. 5, pp. 154 - 167, 2014. DOI: 10.13189/ujar.2014.020503.

(b). APA Format:
Adil Bashir Karrar , Hassan Ibrahim Mohamed , Haitham Ragab Elramlwai , Atif Elsadig Idris (2014). Rain Fed Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) Crop Growth Yield Forecasting Model. Universal Journal of Agricultural Research, 2(5), 154 - 167. DOI: 10.13189/ujar.2014.020503.