Civil Engineering and Architecture Vol. 12(3A), pp. 2419 - 2435
DOI: 10.13189/cea.2024.121335
Reprint (PDF) (1725Kb)

Traffic Flow Forecasting for Road Projects Design in Burkina Faso

Yassia Gansonré ^1,2,*, Aparupa Pani ³, Pierre Breul ^2
1 Department of Civil Engineering, Institute of Technology, Nazi Boni University, Burkina Faso
² Pascal's Institute, Clermont-Auvergne University, CNRS, SIGMA, France
³ Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, India

ABSTRACT

Road traffic flow forecasting has always been of interest for researchers and engineers in fact that it plays a key role in transportation planning and engineering. Even if many traditional as well as advanced methods are in force nowadays in traffic volume forecasting, in many tropical and income countries in Africa, America and Asia, statistical approaches are used for road network and low volume road traffic forecasting. These simple and low cost methods in force now and since many years ago, are mainly focused on the annual average daily traffic (AADT) and the annual traffic growth-rate (AGR) to estimate the volume of heavy traffic that new road projects are intended to support over their lifetime. So their accuracy depends on the AADT collection, the AGR determination and models used for traffic forecasting. This paper addresses a critical need for accurate and reliable traffic forecasting in the context of road project design in Burkina Faso after nearly 40 years of the application of statistical models for road traffic forecasting and in a crisis situation as in the current case of the country where some road sections become inaccessible. The research reviews traffic forecasting methods, the context of road traffic conditions in Burkina Faso and analyses road network traffic data from 1999 to 2013 in order to fix the part of heavy traffic AADT, the trend of traffic growth and the accuracy of traffic forecasting models. In conclusion, the paper provides 34% as part of heavy traffic AADT, 5.05% and 6.20% respectively overall traffic and heavy traffic growth-rates and recommends the geometric growth model as more accurate and the integration of advanced traffic forecasting techniques in road project design.

KEYWORDS
Road Network, Traffic, Forecasting, Growth Rate, Truck Ratio, Accuracy

Cite This Paper in IEEE or APA Citation Styles
(a). IEEE Format:
[1] Yassia Gansonré , Aparupa Pani , Pierre Breul , "Traffic Flow Forecasting for Road Projects Design in Burkina Faso," Civil Engineering and Architecture, Vol. 12, No. 3A, pp. 2419 - 2435, 2024. DOI: 10.13189/cea.2024.121335.

(b). APA Format:
Yassia Gansonré , Aparupa Pani , Pierre Breul (2024). Traffic Flow Forecasting for Road Projects Design in Burkina Faso. Civil Engineering and Architecture, 12(3A), 2419 - 2435. DOI: 10.13189/cea.2024.121335.