Mathematics and Statistics Vol. 12(1), pp. 99 - 104
DOI: 10.13189/ms.2024.120112
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The ARCH Model for Analyzing and Forecasting Temperature Data

Ali Sadig Mohommed Bager ^*
College of Administration and Economics, Al-Muthanna University, Iraq

ABSTRACT

The chaotic nature of the earth's atmosphere and the significant impact of weather on various fields necessitate accurate weather forecasting. Time series analysis plays a crucial role in predicting future values based on past data. The Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model is widely used for forecasting, especially in the field of temperature analysis. This study focuses on the ARCH model for analyzing and forecasting temperature changes. The ARCH model is selected based on its ability to capture the regular variations in the predictability of meteorological variables. The methodology section explains the ARCH model and various statistical tests used, such as the heteroscedasticity test (ARCH test), Jarque-Bera test, and Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF). A sample study is conducted on monthly average temperature data from Athenry, Ireland, over a period of four years. The study utilizes the ARCH model to calculate temperature series volatility and assesses the model's performance using goodness-of-fit measures and predictive accuracy. The results show that the ARCH model successfully predicts temperature changes for three years, as indicated by the forecasted temperature series. The statistical performance of the ARCH model is evaluated using in-sample and out-of-sample analyses, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing temperature variations. The study highlights the importance of time series forecasting and the significant impact of the ARCH model in temperature analysis.

KEYWORDS
ARCH Model, Temperature Forecasting, Time Series Analysis, Heteroscedasticity Test, Jarque-bera Test, Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test

Cite This Paper in IEEE or APA Citation Styles
(a). IEEE Format:
[1] Ali Sadig Mohommed Bager , "The ARCH Model for Analyzing and Forecasting Temperature Data," Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 99 - 104, 2024. DOI: 10.13189/ms.2024.120112.

(b). APA Format:
Ali Sadig Mohommed Bager (2024). The ARCH Model for Analyzing and Forecasting Temperature Data. Mathematics and Statistics, 12(1), 99 - 104. DOI: 10.13189/ms.2024.120112.