Universal Journal of Agricultural Research Vol. 11(5), pp. 872 - 881
DOI: 10.13189/ujar.2023.110512
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Developing a Qualitative Approach Modelling for Food Security Resilient Strategies of Farm Households Post COVID-19 Using Fuzzy Logic Cognitive Mapping and Simulation Scenario Analysis

Krithika S. ^1,*, Karthikeyan C. ¹, Paul Mansingh J. ^2
1 Department of Agricultural Extension and Rural Sociology, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, India
² VIT School of Agricultural Innovations and Advanced Learning (VAIAL), Vellore Institute of Technology, India

ABSTRACT

Agricultural food systems have been disrupted due to the unprecedented impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the world is still recovering from the aftershocks. Especially, smallholder farmers have been at the receiving end due to the cascading effects of the disruptions in the food system. The multiple pathways in the food system should be identified and mapped to extend suitable policy interventions for the future. Hence, the study aims to identify the pathways to resilience through Fuzzy Logic Cognitive Mapping and Scenario Analysis. The study was conducted in selected districts of Tamil Nadu state in India among smallholder farmers and farm labourers. A qualitative research design was followed and the respondents were interviewed using an open-ended questionnaire to identify the food availability, accessibility and utilization during the COVID-19 period. The transcripts were coded and the themes (system elements) were identified using Nvivo software. The system elements identified through the Thematic Analysis were then included in the Fuzzy Logic Cognitive Mapping (FCM) tool employing Mental Modeler software. The mental models developed for the smallholder farmers for resilient food systems indicated the centrality of robust social safety net programmes (5.74 centrality score) and increasing the income stability of the smallholder households (5.42). The other pathways for resilience include entrepreneurship development, livestock, kitchen gardening, diversification, gender equality, social net programmes, market stability and Integrated Farming System. The Scenario Analysis suggested interventions such as improving market accessibility, providing better social safety net programmes, entrepreneurship development, and kitchen gardening as some of the resilient strategies. The study helps to form important policy interventions to overcome the negative impacts of the pandemic on the agricultural food system. The prescribed interventions can help to address the challenges of the pandemic that revealed the shortcomings in the current food system.

KEYWORDS
Resilient Model, Fuzzy Logic, Scenario Analysis, Qualitative Analysis, System Elements

Cite This Paper in IEEE or APA Citation Styles
(a). IEEE Format:
[1] Krithika S. , Karthikeyan C. , Paul Mansingh J. , "Developing a Qualitative Approach Modelling for Food Security Resilient Strategies of Farm Households Post COVID-19 Using Fuzzy Logic Cognitive Mapping and Simulation Scenario Analysis," Universal Journal of Agricultural Research, Vol. 11, No. 5, pp. 872 - 881, 2023. DOI: 10.13189/ujar.2023.110512.

(b). APA Format:
Krithika S. , Karthikeyan C. , Paul Mansingh J. (2023). Developing a Qualitative Approach Modelling for Food Security Resilient Strategies of Farm Households Post COVID-19 Using Fuzzy Logic Cognitive Mapping and Simulation Scenario Analysis. Universal Journal of Agricultural Research, 11(5), 872 - 881. DOI: 10.13189/ujar.2023.110512.