Universal Journal of Public Health Vol. 10(5), pp. 482 - 491
DOI: 10.13189/ujph.2022.100506
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Forecasting the Number of Outpatient Patient Visits Using ARIMA at Mitra Sehat Clinic: Case Study in Sukoharjo, Central Java Indonesia

Susilo Hariyanto ^*
Department of Mathematics, Diponegoro University, Semarang 50275, Indonesia

ABSTRACT

In the pandemic situation, Clinic Mitra Sehat Sukoharjo has become a forefront health facility to maintain the health of society. During the last three years, the number of patients visited has reached 142.792 people. With that large patient visitation, it is necessary to provide everything to serve patients well. This study will provide estimation data results that can be used by the Mitra Sehat Clinic, which previously only made preparations without data. This study will estimate the Number of Outpatient Patient Visits Using ARIMA at Mitra Sehat Clinic in the next few months. ARIMA or Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average is a forecasting method that will be used to predict the number of patient visits at the next time, so that in the future, Mitra Sehat Clinic can prepare matters related to serving the visiting patients optimally. The steps for using the ARIMA method are using data from the required sample from patients visiting in January 2019-December 2021, determining the type of time series data pattern, then conducting a stationarity test, determining the ARIMA model, calculating and analyzing the accuracy of the model used, and then forecasting the number of outpatient visits. And the best ARIMA model for this forecasting based on the calculation is (1, 0, 1) with an error value of 334183.

KEYWORDS
Arima, Forecasting, Patient Visits, Sukoharjo Indonesia

Cite This Paper in IEEE or APA Citation Styles
(a). IEEE Format:
[1] Susilo Hariyanto , "Forecasting the Number of Outpatient Patient Visits Using ARIMA at Mitra Sehat Clinic: Case Study in Sukoharjo, Central Java Indonesia," Universal Journal of Public Health, Vol. 10, No. 5, pp. 482 - 491, 2022. DOI: 10.13189/ujph.2022.100506.

(b). APA Format:
Susilo Hariyanto (2022). Forecasting the Number of Outpatient Patient Visits Using ARIMA at Mitra Sehat Clinic: Case Study in Sukoharjo, Central Java Indonesia. Universal Journal of Public Health, 10(5), 482 - 491. DOI: 10.13189/ujph.2022.100506.