Mathematics and Statistics Vol. 9(3), pp. 357 - 370
DOI: 10.13189/ms.2021.090318
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Stationary and Non-Stationary Models of Extreme Ground-Level Ozone in Peninsular Malaysia

Siti Aisyah Zakaria ^1,*, Nor Azrita Mohd Amin ¹, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad Radi ², Nasrul Hamidin ^3
1 Institute of Engineering Mathematics, Universiti Malaysia Perlis, KampusPauh Putra, 02600 Arau, Perlis, Malaysia
² Faculty of Computer & Mathematical Sciences, UniversitiTeknologi MARA, 40450 Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia
³ School of Environmental Engineering, University Malaysia Perlis, 02600 Arau, Perlis, Malaysia

ABSTRACT

High ground-level ozone (GLO) concentrations will adversely affect human health, vegetations as well as the ecosystem. Therefore, continuous monitoring for GLO trends is a good practice to address issues related to air quality based on high concentrations of GLO. The purpose of this study is to introduce stationary and non-stationary model of extreme GLO. The method is applied to 25 selected stations in Peninsular Malaysia. The maximum daily GLO concentration data over 8 hours from year 2000 to 2016 are used. The factors of this distribution are anticipated using maximum likelihood estimation. A comparison between stationary (constant model) and non-stationary (linear and cyclic model) is performed using the likelihood ratio test (LRT). The LRT is based on the larger value of deviance statistics compared to a chi-square distribution providing the significance evidence to non-stationary model either there is linear trend or cyclic trend. The best fit model between selected models is tested by Akaike's Information Criterion. The results show that 25 stations conform to the non-stationary model either linear or cyclic model, with 14 stations showing significant improvement over the linear model in location parameter while 11 stations follow the cyclic model. This study is important to identify the trends of ozone phenomenon for better quality risk management.

KEYWORDS
Akaike's Information Criterion, Ground-Level Ozone, Likelihood Ratio Test, Generalized Extreme Value Distribution, Maximum Likelihood Estimation

Cite This Paper in IEEE or APA Citation Styles
(a). IEEE Format:
[1] Siti Aisyah Zakaria , Nor Azrita Mohd Amin , Noor Fadhilah Ahmad Radi , Nasrul Hamidin , "Stationary and Non-Stationary Models of Extreme Ground-Level Ozone in Peninsular Malaysia," Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 357 - 370, 2021. DOI: 10.13189/ms.2021.090318.

(b). APA Format:
Siti Aisyah Zakaria , Nor Azrita Mohd Amin , Noor Fadhilah Ahmad Radi , Nasrul Hamidin (2021). Stationary and Non-Stationary Models of Extreme Ground-Level Ozone in Peninsular Malaysia. Mathematics and Statistics, 9(3), 357 - 370. DOI: 10.13189/ms.2021.090318.