Universal Journal of Geoscience Vol. 7(2), pp. 43 - 55
DOI: 10.13189/ujg.2019.070201
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Probabilistic Projections of Annual Runoff and Potential Hydropower Production in Finland


Elena Shevnina 1,*, Andrey Silaev 2, Timo Vihma 1
1 Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland
2 National Research University Higher School of Economics, Russia

ABSTRACT

Exceedance probability of a potential hydropower production was evaluated for 12 river basins located in Finland. The exceedance probability curves of the potential hydropower production were assessed from the probabilistic projections of annual runoff rate. The exceedance probability curves of the ARR are constructed within the Pearson type 3 distributions from simulated parameters, i.e. mean values, coefficient of variation and coefficient of skewness. In our case study, these parameters were simulated from the mean values of annual precipitation rate calculated from outputs of two climate models under three Representative Concentration Pathway's climate scenarios. The future changes in the potential hydropower production for the selected river basins were evaluated on the assumption that a potential hydropower production is linearly related to ARR in all range of exceedance probabilities.

KEYWORDS
Climate Change, Water Resources, Annual Runoff Rate, Potential Hydropower Production, Probabilistic Hydrological Projection

Cite this paper
Elena Shevnina , Andrey Silaev , Timo Vihma . "Probabilistic Projections of Annual Runoff and Potential Hydropower Production in Finland." Universal Journal of Geoscience 7.2 (2019) 43 - 55. doi: 10.13189/ujg.2019.070201.