Jewelry as a Kind of Household Savings of Uzbekistan

The goal of the present research is to study the influence of price increase on gold and on the level of household savings of Uzbekistan. The authors put forward the hypothesis – the higher the prices of gold, the more active the households of Uzbekistan invest in jewelry. Thus, the authors supplemented the theory of Gustav Kassel – the growth of the world prices of gold not only influence on the level of exchange rate level, but also on the level of household savings. The carried out analysis, using the econometric methods has shown that the households of RUz invest in jewelry, which are used as savings.


Introduction
The level of savings of households in the modern economy is important in the economy of the state as a whole, as from the level of savings depends on the sustainable development of both the household itself and the country as a whole. The authors examined the theory of G. Kassel [1] concerning the influence of the world prices of gold and on the level of the currency exchange rate of the national currencies, by assuming that the price increase of gold has influence on the level of household savings as well. However, according to the opinion of the authors, the level of savings of households is not worth considering only from the standpoint of finances, a number of theories has influence on the level of household savings, including the theories of marketing -(H. Leibenstein [2] theory -luxury consumption, Veblen's [3] theory -conspicuous consumption), and theories of economic sociology (Abolafia [4] Cultural-historical approach).
The methods of research-for carrying out the research, the authors used the econometric methods (correlation and regression analyses). The calculations were made, using EXEL program.

Materials and Methods
Based on the studies put forward by the author, the hypothesis which is the level of household savings rate affects the price of gold on world markets. So provided by the author Table 1 The structure of consumption of the residents of Uzbekistan, the structure of consumption by major commodity groups, where it is shown that the level of consumption increases on the basis of total income, but household planning specificity is to ensure that the increases and the volume of purchase jewelry, which are traditionally in the country are a form of savings.
During the study 17 years from 1995 to 2012 the volume of consumption of Jewelry has increased almost 10 times! If we compare with these kinds of consumption as televisions that sales in 2012 amounted to 20.7 billion UZS, while the jewelry -28.7. Of course, jewelry is not related to essential commodities, the population uses these acquisitions as savings.  Given the reduction theory of Gustav Cassel, which showed that the level of purchasing ability of the currency affects the price of gold on international markets, the author proposes to consider the change in the exchange rate (Uzbek sum), the world price of gold and the amount of household savings.
Next to valuation according to the level of household savings spend calculation of correlation between the level of inflation and deposits, deposits and the level of the price of gold, a change of course sum to the dollar and the value of an ounce on the stock exchange.
In this case, we can use a correlation analysis.
The goal of the correlation analysis is to determine the degree of dependence between factorial and resultant signs.
The value of linear connection of two signs characterizes the coefficient of linear correlation which is denoted r.
The value of correlation coefficient can be calculated by the following formula (Pearson correlation coefficient [8]): (2) n -sample number; i -number of observation.
The correlation coefficient can be calculated in MS Excel, using CORREL functions.
The correlation matrix of two signs X and Y is called the matrix of the form: The correlation relationship between the values of one and the same attribute, for example, called autocorrelation, its value always equals to 1: Let's consider the regression models with one equation. In such models the dependent (explained) variable y is represented as a function ..., , , Depending on the type of function ( ) .. ,  Jewelry as a Kind of Household Savings of Uzbekistan Therefore it is considered that the term ε is called the regression residue (or just residue) reflects the combined impact of all other unaccounted factors on the value y .
The linear function of regression is found in the data sample, is written in the following way: β ; The actual and evaluation data of regression model are represented in Fig 2. The points on the graph represent the actual data; a straight line represents their approximation, i.e., is described by our estimation equation (5).
Thus, the following which we will use in our research is the least square method [8].
At the heart of the least square method (LSM) lies in such values of coefficient In the result, we obtain the correlation diagram on which the drawn line of regression and represented the equation of linear regression together with the coefficient of determination.
The systems of simultaneous equations. The data of system may consist of identities and regression equations, each of which may except the explanatory variables also include the explanatory variables from the other system of equations. Thus, we have here a set of explanatory variables, related through the system of equations.
So spend a correlation analysis based inflation rate and deposits of the population, the data represented in Table 3. As you can see from the above calculations for the period from 2005 to 2015 the relationship between inflation and no deposits of the population: Although the state to attract deposits set a high interest rate, so it was the level of 30-35% in 2009 year, however, the correlation between performance ratio no indicator is negative: -0,43987 From the presented graph shows that not only there is no correlation between the level of inflation and the deposits of the population, but there is a nonlinear relationship, the higher the inflation the less people trust the bank deposits.
Further, in our opinion, it is necessary to consider the rate depending on the price of gold in the world with the fluctuations of the national currency (Table 4). So, how the calculations between the level of prices on the world markets and the level of fluctuations in the UZS, and the US dollar there is a high level of dependence -0.98892, which indicates the high dependency fluctuations in gold prices and currency fluctuations (UZS). The authors calculated regression equation and the coefficient of determination, R² = 0,98 indicates a high dependence between these factors.
Next, to confirm the hypothesis -depending on the level of household savings on the level of world prices for gold, we calculate the correlation of these indicators, the table 5. Conducted by the author calculations indicate a strong enough connection between the price of gold on world markets and the level of deposits of the population. At the same time the level of population's deposits, inflation has no effect. Next, we calculated the level of correlation between the amount of deposits and the rate of the UZS and US dollar. Thus, calculations show a correlation coefficient of 0.8, which means that the link between indicators. R²determination coefficient is also equal to 0.6 confirms the hypothesis -deposits of the population depends on the fluctuations in the price of gold on world markets.
As shown by the calculations in the period from 2005 to 2015, the high level of dependence (correlation 0.87) between the amount of retail deposits and currency fluctuations. This means that the devaluation of the UZS leads to an increase in household deposits.  From these calculations it can be concluded according to the cost of the Uzbek sum of total household deposits. The coefficient of determination R² = 0,74, and shows a high level of dependence between the coefficients.
However, our main goal is to confirm the hypothesis put forward by the author on the relationship between the level of savings and the price of gold on the world market level. The extended position of the impact on the level of household savings is not only economic theory but also cultural characteristics (Theory of Lebenstein, Veblen) show that a high level of household savings makes up and jewelry. National traditions give Gold Jewelry to the important events of the population, allowed the author to carry out calculations on the impact on the gold price level on world markets and the purchase of gold jewelry. Thus, our calculations show that the increase in gold prices and the appreciation of jewelry do not reduce the demand for gold and increased the amount of products purchased. The correlation coefficient is nearly 1, i.e., 0.99! This proves that the population uses jewelry as savings element.
The proof is the fact that the increasing population of the country in terms of national currency devaluation and the increase in world gold prices continue to invest money in jewelry. As you can see from the graph presented -the higher the price of gold on world markets, the higher the demand of the population of Uzbekistan on jewelry. Graph 4 shows a linear relationship between the two measures. This is confirmed by the coefficient of determination R² = 0,9. Thus, the growing population of the country continues to invest heavily in jewelry, thus forming savings at the household level. The correlation coefficient of 0.86 indicates a high level of dependence of these parameters. When planning the financial policy of the state, the implementation of the business development program should take into account the population data resources. So, by the authors of the study, have the following conclusions:

1.
Using the techniques of correlation, regression analysis, the author put forward a hypothesis about the dependence of the level of savings in the Republic of Uzbekistan on world gold prices was confirmed. The study found that the people of Uzbekistan a significant part of the savings to invest in jewelry, which confirms the hypothesis of the author, of the influence of cultural characteristics of the level of household savings. The economic policy planning conditions it is necessary to use this important resource of the household savings.

2.
Research on the basis of econometric methods showed that inflation has an adverse effect on the level of Uzbekistan's household savings -higher inflation in the country, the less investments, but investment levels in jewelry increases.